Companies: more than 7 out of 10 still expect export growth in 2026

Despite geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, global export prospects remain oriented toward growth, albeit in a more uncertain and complex environment. This is highlighted by the Global Survey 2026 by Allianz Trade, which shows that the international scenario has not undermined business expectations but has significantly reshaped the geography of risks after a year marked by trade war.

The survey – conducted between February and March 2026 on a sample of 6,000 companies across 13 markets, spanning manufacturing and other sectors – analyzes the impact of the conflict on exports, global trade and supply chains, offering an updated snapshot of corporate strategies and concerns at an international level.

COMPANIES REMAIN CONFIDENT
“Allianz Trade’s Global Survey shows that 75% of exporters still expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East appears moderate, even more so when compared to the tariff shock of 2025, when expectations fell by 40 percentage points. However, this optimism remains fragile and could quickly fade if the conflict persists. In fact, companies in Vietnam, the United States and Spain have all lost more than 10 percentage points of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese companies have lost 9 percentage points,” explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.
Despite this resilient confidence, the conflict in the Middle East is tightening trade finance conditions. Payment terms are lengthening and the share of companies paid within 30 days has dropped from 10% to 7% since the start of the conflict, while those waiting more than 70 days have increased from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect a further deterioration in payment conditions (+5 percentage points compared to the pre-conflict period).
The risk of non-payment has also worsened: the share of companies expecting higher risk has risen to 40% (+6 percentage points compared to the pre-conflict period). The pharmaceutical, construction and ICT/telecommunications sectors are the most exposed, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.
“The conflict has pushed geopolitical and political risk to the top of global threats for 65% of companies, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45%), which were the main concern in 2025 during the trade war. Supply-side issues, such as supplier failures and input shortages, have moved into second place (57%). However, less than a quarter of companies are concerned about the spillover effects of the conflict on energy and maritime transport: either companies are confident in their adaptation mechanisms or they expect the conflict to be short-lived,” adds Aylin Somersan Coqui.

COMPANIES: SUPPLY AS A PRIORITY
Since the start of the trade war in 2025, companies have implemented mitigation strategies to adapt to the new context. Those with longer supply chains have been the most reactive and particularly more inclined to turn to new suppliers and redirect flows compared to the overall sample.
The most common adaptation mechanisms have been increasing inventories and diversifying into new markets (both at 64%), as well as sourcing from new suppliers (63%), indicating a widespread effort to reduce risks on both the demand and supply sides. This is followed by rerouting through third markets (57%), confirming that companies are also adapting logistics to bypass trade frictions.
“Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, 53% of companies have been seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, with over 60% doing so in Singapore, Italy, the United Arab Emirates and Poland. The second most common strategy (52%) is working with customs brokers to speed up clearance operations, with over 60% in Italy, Germany, China and the United Kingdom. The third is adjusting delivery times for 50% of companies, mainly in Vietnam, the United Kingdom, Singapore, France and Italy. By contrast, changes to Incoterms (36%) remain more limited, suggesting that contractual adjustments follow operational ones,” says Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Furthermore, the crisis in the Middle East has not undermined companies’ outlook on global reshoring: 72% of exporters expect at least to maintain the same pace. However, the main constraints to reshoring remain related to suppliers, such as lack of access or high-quality domestic suppliers (around 83%), followed by production costs (67%) and lack of tax incentives or subsidies (61%).
More complex supply chains are pushing companies to place resilience at the center of their investment strategies, prioritizing market consolidation, new trade routes and the development of overseas facilities.

EUROPE AND ASIA: FUTURE GROWTH
The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the United States for exporters: only 13% consider it a growing market. In the context of supply chain reconfiguration and recent free trade agreements, Europe and Asia are becoming priorities for future growth, as companies increasingly seek stability and open markets.
Interest in Europe as an export destination has grown broadly, with exporters from Singapore (+10 percentage points compared to 2025) and the United States (+9 percentage points compared to 2025) showing the strongest increases in interest. Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, although the attractiveness of investment in China has sharply declined: only 23% of companies (-30 percentage points compared to 2025) plan to increase their presence, while only 10% are actively planning to exit.
“Growth opportunities are being strengthened by a new wave of trade agreements: 93% of companies plan to expand by leveraging recent free trade agreements, such as India–EU and MERCOSUR–EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets. However, the full potential of these agreements remains limited: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the main obstacle preventing companies from turning access to trade agreements into real export growth,” concludes Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.