International furniture trade keeps growing on a global scale, but the gap between advanced countries and regions with strong economic and population growth is widening.This is the message from the latest Csil report.
Fourteenth edition for the seminar about “World Furniture Outlook”, the report by Csil (Centre for Industrial Studies) about global furniture trade, presented in Milan during “Salone del Mobile” 2015-2016 according to tradition. The market survey, involving a panel of 70 highly strategic companies in terms of production and sales potential, highlights the key trends and developments to provide Italian and international operators with a sort of “compass” to find their way on the market.
The starting point to understand how furniture trade is changing is the analysis of global economic trends, with GDP development forecasts for 2015 and 2016. Based on 2015 figures from the International Monetary Fund, the Csil report indicates that, in the current year, global GDP is expected to increase by 3.5 percent, with a gap between advanced economies, up by 2.4 percent, and emerging and developing countries, with estimated rates at 4.3 percent.
In 2016, the gap is widening further, with forecasts of substantial immobility for developed countries and stronger GDP growth in emerging countries (plus 4.7 percent), giving a total GDP increase by 3.7 percent. If global GDP development forecasts are correct, global furniture trade should probably reach a value of 141 billion US dollar in 2015, after growing progressively from 94 billion in 2009 to 106 billion in 2010, up to 134 billion in 2014.In terms of economic value, global furniture trade is expected to increase by 5 percent in 2015 and 6 percent in 2016.
Expanding trade
According to Csil 2015 outlook figures, global furniture production is worth approximately 480 billion US dollar (it was at 450 in 2013, 345 in 2009, which means a 39 percent increase); out of this value, 30 percent is absorbed by export and 70 percent by domestic consumption in the same countries where furniture is produced. The biggest furniture manufacturer is China (over 200 billion US dollar), followed at a distance by the United States recording moderate growth, Germany (stable), Italy (decreasing) and India, a country that is experiencing a period of strong expansion in several economic and industrial areas, furniture included. China, Italy and Germany are also the leading exporters. From 2009 to 2014, China’s furniture production increased by 101 percent, followed in decreasing order by Poland (plus 48 percent), India (plus 41 percent), Brazil (plus 27 percent), the United States (plus 10 percent) and Canada (plus 6 percent); negative trend for Italy (down by 16 percent), France (minus 12 percent) and Japan (minus 10 percent). At macro region level, Asia-Pacific is the area that recorded the most significant increase in furniture production between 2009 and 2014, compared to Europe, North America, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa.
Also global furniture consumption is growing.In 2013, the economic value of furniture demand amounted to 436 billion US dollar, up by 17 billion compared to 2012.
Csil forecasts for 2015 see a further significant increase in global demand by 3.4 percent in real terms.On a global scale, the region that stands out for furniture demand is Asia-Pacific (with an expected increase by more than 5 percent), driven by countries like China and most of all India, where the key drivers are growing population, increasing per-capita income and housing development.The ranking continues with the Middle East and Africa, North America and − far behind − South America, Western Europe and Eastern-Central Europe/Russia.Preliminary 2014 figures identify the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Canada as the top-five furniture importers, while the top-five exporters are China, Italy, Germany, Poland and Vietnam.After the critical phase of recession, when most importing countries had suffered from decreasing demand, in 2014 the United States, Canada and Germany reached or exceeded pre-crisis levels, while in other European countries (the United Kingdom, for instance) recovery is slower.
Some positive signals
for the global furniture market
ultima modifica: 2015-04-29T00:00:00+00:00
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