In 2024 the Italian capital goods industry saw a decline in all the main economic indicators, closing with a result that reflects the difficulties experienced. Having left behind 2024 – among the worst years in recent times – 2025 should bring improvement, although there are still many question marks.
This is, in brief, what emerged during the latest general assembly of Federmacchine, the Confindustria federation that brings together the associations representing the industries engaged in the production of capital goods. The assembly, which in its private session also confirmed Bruno Bettelli as president for the 2025–2026 term, was an opportunity to examine the performance of a sector that is absolutely fundamental to industry and to the national trade balance.
2024 RESULTS
In 2024, the sector’s turnover stood at 52.5 billion euro, 7.4 percent less than in 2023. The decline was mainly due to reduced deliveries by Italian manufacturers on the domestic market, penalized by the halt in consumption, although exports also suffered, albeit to a lesser extent and therefore helping to limit the damage.
Exports fell by 4.2 percent, settling at 36 billion euro.
Deliveries by Italian manufacturers to the domestic market recorded a much heavier setback, stopping at 16.4 billion euro, 13.7 percent less than the previous year. Domestic consumption also underwent a significant downsizing, just exceeding 26 billion euro, 14.3 percent less than in 2023. In line with this was the result of imports, also heavily penalized by the collapse in domestic demand, at 9.8 billion euro, down 15.2 percent.
A 2024 that was, if not black, certainly grey – no doubt about it – but Italian companies in the sector once again demonstrated their ability to maintain a strong presence in the local market, as evidenced by the import/consumption ratio which stood at 37.3 percent, while the export/turnover ratio actually grew to 68.7 percent.
As regards relations with foreign markets, thanks to data released by Federmacchine we can add some information about destination areas in 2024. Italy is obviously at the top of the ranking, with a turnover share of 31.3 percent, while 36.3 percent was achieved thanks to other European countries. Europe as a whole therefore represents as much as 68 percent of the Italian turnover of the sector.
In second place come the Americas, with 16.6 percent, followed by Asia with 11.8 percent. Looking at individual countries, in 2024 Italian exports fell in all the main markets except Spain and India. The main destinations were the United States (5 billion euro, down 0.1 percent), Germany (3.6 billion, down 8.5 percent), France (2.5 billion, down 5.2 percent), China (1.6 billion, down 12.7 percent) and Spain (1.5 billion, up 3 percent), the only one to give us a positive figure.
2025 FORECASTS
The day also made it possible to try to imagine what the current year will bring, thanks to analyses by the Statistics Group of Federmacchine. 2025 clearly marks a reversal of the trend, in other words the shift from too many negative signs to positive ones, but not many are voting in favour of a real turnaround that could make us forget the difficult 2024.
The increases are in fact rather limited and do not suggest a real relaunch. According to experts, turnover should grow by 1.6 percent, reaching around 53.3 billion euro, while exports – hampered by the general uncertainty of the international context – will remain stationary at 36.3 billion (up 0.6 percent).
Domestic consumption is expected to grow by 2 percent, for a value of around 26.7 billion euro, a weak increase that will mainly benefit Italian manufacturers, whose deliveries to the domestic market should rise by 3.7 percent, for a value of about 17 billion. Few opportunities are expected for imports, which should decrease by a further 1 percent, stopping at 9.7 billion euro.
In short, a recent past that was anything but brilliant and a present that, while offering some signs of optimism, does not indicate that the page can really be turned. The comment from president Bruno Bettelli was clear: “… despite the rather steep decline, 2024 turnover nonetheless remained at high levels, also thanks to the strong results of previous years. 2025 is expected to be positive, thanks to the slight recovery of Italian manufacturers’ activity on the domestic market and thanks to the substantial resilience of exports.”
“The trade war is creating significant problems for all operators in the manufacturing world,” he added. “For us machinery manufacturers, the United States represents the first export market, an excellent result that unfortunately risks being downsized by the decision to impose excessively high tariffs. And this is the first effect, although probably not the worst. We believe in fact that President Trump will think carefully before setting excessively high rates on products he badly needs, and Italian machinery is among them, since domestic production cannot meet local demand and our offer has always been highly appreciated. What worries us most is the climate of uncertainty fuelled by his constant announcements: this instability risks causing a real standstill in demand and some entrepreneurs are already noticing it. The risk is that, while waiting to understand the actual outcome – amid repeated announcements, relaunches and denials – companies stop investing.”
“We therefore trust in the negotiating ability of the Brussels authorities to bring Trump to a reasonable negotiation, but we must be aware that we can no longer do without an alternative plan in case dialogue does not lead to the hoped-for results. I am thinking of free trade agreements, on the model of the one between the EU and Mercosur.”
This was a comment expressed at the end of July, and it is feared that it will continue to be marked by a climate of uncertainty for some time to come…
“In the meantime, the business world is certainly not standing still. And it is for this reason,” added Bruno Bettelli, “that Federmacchine, together with Confindustria, has produced the second edition of the ‘Rapporto Ingenium’, which shows that there are eight billion euro of potential exports available to Italian companies. We must start from here, working on the involvement of all the actors of the ‘Sistema Paese’, from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation to ICE-Agency, from Sace – insurance and financial services for companies – to Simest (Italian company for joint ventures abroad), in order to be increasingly effective in penetrating target markets. But we must also intensify our efforts on study tours and missions: after the one carried out a few months ago, we will return to Mexico in October, again together with Confindustria, to present the ‘Rapporto Ingenium’, aware of how interesting this country can be for the Italian industry in the sector.”
“On the domestic front,” concluded Bruno Bettelli, “the current year coincides with the closure of the ‘Industry 4.0’ and ‘5.0’ measures, which have supported domestic demand for new technologies. We therefore ask the government authorities to start immediately on defining an industrial policy plan that will accompany Italian manufacturing starting in 2026.”
