The European lumber market is entering a phase of structural tension: demand is beginning to rise again after the slowdown of 2022–24, but supply is expected to tighten due to sourcing constraints and limits on forest harvesting. This is the picture outlined in the new outlook “Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence and New Trade Flows to 2030,” authored by Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly, which positions Europe as a future cornerstone of global supply in a context of severe production restrictions in Russia and Canada.
The continent — which today accounts for one-third of global production and one-quarter of net exports — has seen demand slow over the past two years due to high interest rates. With monetary conditions now easing, forecasts point to a gradual recovery through 2030 toward levels more aligned with long-term averages.
Production, which has grown faster than demand over the past fifteen years, has supported an increase in exports from 10 percent to 19 percent of total output between 2009 and 2024, mainly from Sweden, Finland, Germany and Austria. But the picture is shifting: Central Europe — hit by a bark beetle outbreak between 2018 and 2021 that damaged around 400 million cubic meters of timber — can no longer rely on salvage logging, and with the transition toward more mixed-species forests, the availability of softwood is expected to decline further by the end of the decade.
The production center of gravity will therefore move toward Northern and Eastern Europe, where Romania, Poland and — once stability is restored — Ukraine offer room for expansion. Overall, the potential increase in softwood harvests is estimated at 15–20 million cubic meters by 2030, a volume insufficient to offset the structural constraints of Central Europe.
Meanwhile, trade flows are shifting, and extra-European destinations have risen from 27 percent to 40 percent of total exports in fourteen years. Shipments to the United States increased more than tenfold between 2015 and 2022 before slowing, while China reduced purchases after the 2020 peak. At the same time, the Middle East and North Africa remain solid markets. Overall exports are expected to remain stable through 2030, held back by the recovery in domestic demand and tighter supply.
According to the report’s conclusions, Europe will remain an essential global supplier, but growing competition for fiber — together with new regulations in the European Union, U.S. tariff policy and rising Canadian lumber costs — will keep strong upward pressure on log and lumber prices throughout the decade.
