According to the new report “Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulence, and New Trade Flows” by O’Kelly Acumen (Sweden) and Global Wood Trends (USA), the global market for construction-grade softwood lumber is entering a period of transformation that will extend through 2030. After years of weak demand and high volatility, recovery is expected to be gradual, driven by improving economic conditions in Europe and China, supply constraints in North America, and new trade flows resulting from tariffs and forestry policy shifts.
The softwood sector, valued at around USD 80 billion annually, has grown by only 1.8 percent per year since 2000, yet significant changes are taking place beneath the surface in both demand and trade. Consumption is increasingly shifting toward Asia, while North America and Europe remain the main production hubs. Per capita use stands between 0.2 and 0.4 cubic meters in mature markets and below 0.1 cubic meter in developing countries, leaving room for growth particularly in Southeast Asia and the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa).
In the United States, which accounts for 27 percent of global demand but only 20 percent of production, new import tariffs introduced in October 2025 are expected to push domestic lumber prices higher. Southern sawmills are expanding capacity, but growth is likely to slow during 2025–2027 due to labor shortages and rising log costs.
In Canada, higher U.S. duties (rising from 14 percent to 45 percent) and limited log supply in British Columbia are expected to lead to further mill closures and a decline in production, shifting investment toward the southern United States. Europe, which provides one-third of global softwood supply, is projected to grow moderately alongside the recovery in construction, though production in Northern and Central Europe is already near sustainable limits. Expansion will depend largely on Eastern Europe and the Baltic region.
In China, demand — down 34 percent since 2017 — is expected to recover only after 2027, as the property market stabilizes. Meanwhile, MENA and middle-income Asian countries (such as India and Vietnam) will see increased demand driven mainly by imports.
Overall, the global softwood lumber market is forecast to grow by 1.2 percent annually through 2030, reaching 335 million cubic meters, with 70 percent of that growth coming from the United States, Europe, and China. To meet demand, roughly 22 million cubic meters of new supply will be required, mainly from the U.S. South, Eastern Europe, and Russia’s Far East.
Source: Softwood Lumber – Tariffs, Turbulenc
